The first half of February for the U.S. saw 1,475,549 cases and 44,865 deaths. Double that and we get the estimate for Feb. 2021 as 2.95 million cases and 89,700 deaths.
U.S. Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
Sept 1.2 million cases 24,004 deaths
Oct 2.0 million cases 24,332 deaths
Nov 4.5 million cases 38,293 deaths
Dec 6.6 million cases 79,850 deaths
Jan 6.2 million cases 98,094 deaths
Feb 2.3 million cases 89,730 deaths (estimate)
That might seem like fewer deaths in February (and it is), but Feb. is three days shorter than Jan. And the average Covid deaths per day in Jan. was 3,164 versus 3,205 per day for Feb. So while cases are way down, deaths are up a little as a number, and up a great deal as a percentage of reported cases. The cause is probably far fewer cases being reported as hospitals are full and turning away many patients.
Maybe cases are actually down to some extent, but not from 6.2 to 2.3 million cases. Essentially, people are still dying from Covid-19 in February, just as in Jan. and Dec. The good news is that cases might really be falling, and should continue to fall in March, April, and May.
It’s possible that cases are not down, but fewer persons are seeking help at hospitals, unless they are very sick. It’s also possible that cases are down because those most likely to catch the disease have already caught it. The concept of herd immunity uses an “R-nought” (R0) number to express how easily the disease spreads. But in reality, an R0 for one person might be 2 and for another person, it might be 10 or 20. After a year, most persons who were susceptible to catching/spreading the disease may already have had a case and become immune. So we could be seeing a move toward herd immunity.
The problem with that theory is that deaths are still just as high as in the previous months. And that gives the counter argument, that cases are high and just not being reported, strong evidence. If cases were fewer, why would deaths be higher? The death rate seems to be 2.5x higher, based on the apparent lower case rate — which is unlikely. So we should consider the death rate to be an indicator of the case rate, and take greater efforts to lower the spread of the disease.
The way to decrease cases and deaths is to use vitamin D as a preventative measure for those who are well, and to use ivermectin for those who are ill from Covid.