Explaining the Research on Covid-19

Second Wave

Evidence that Covid-19 is Seasonal and that Winter will see a large increase in cases and deaths:

* Kaplin, Adam Ian, et al. “Evidence and magnitude of seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Penny wise, pandemic foolish?.” medRxiv (2020). Submitted to PLOS ONE (under review). Study Link

* Yuan, Jingsong, et al. “A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China.” American journal of infection control 34.4 (2006): 234-236. Full Text
— The study concluded that the SARS disease, caused by SARS-CoV-1, is seasonal. This virus is similar to SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid.

* Komabayashi, Kenichi, et al. “Seasonality of human coronavirus OC43, NL63, HKU1, and 229E infection in Yamagata, Japan, 2010–2019.” Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020): JJID-2020. PDF of Study
— This Japanese study, analyzed in this article, found that four other human coronaviruses, ones that cause colds, are seasonal.

* Edridge, Arthur WD, et al. “Coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting.” medRxiv (2020). PDF of Study
— This study confirms the Japanese study; the same four coronaviruses were found to be seasonal. The number of cases in winter were much more than in summer.

* As this article, Covid-19: Summer Respite, Winter Resurgence, explains, vitamin D blood levels are lower in winter. This is a large part of the reason that various illnesses may be seasonal. And as we know from 18 studies so far, Covid-19 is affected by vitamin D levels in the blood. See the vitamin D studies listed on this page.

Vitamin D levels are low in winter and high in summer. Covid-19 is responsive to vitamin D. Higher levels of vitamin D in the population translates into fewer cases, fewer severe cases, fewer hospitalizations, fewer ICU admissions, fewer persons on mechanical ventilators, and fewer deaths.

Covid-19 is a far more virulent disease if you have low levels of vitamin D. So in winter, when the general population has low vitamin D, you have more cases and more deaths. If we do not do a vitamin D supplementation and sunshine program by October 1st, we will lose lives that could otherwise have been saved.

* 6 August 2020

CNN: “Model projects nearly 300,000 Americans could die from Covid-19 by December

Wrong, so very wrong. My “model” predicts that monthly Covid-19 cases and deaths will rise every month from October to February.

* Let’s say you are sunning yourself on a beach in a tropical paradise. And suddenly, the tide goes out. Way way out, very quickly. The waters recede from the beach-goers hundreds of feet. What does this indicate? A tidal wave is imminent. Paradoxically, the lowering of the waters indicates a huge increase in the height of the waters.

* 5 August 2020

Winter is coming. Covid-19 is seasonal, and that means that the number of cases per month this winter will be a multiple of the number of cases we saw in the U.S. in July (2 million cases then). But the healthcare system in the U.S. cannot handle a wave of cases which is a multiple of 2 million. Monthly cases of Covid-19 could rise many times higher this winter. See this chart, based on the article in this link

The Chart above is one possible outcome for this winter. Do NOT interpret these as exact numbers, but as a general indication of how bad the winter “second wave” might be. The real numbers might be greater or lesser than those stated. This is not an attempt to predict the exact values, but to warn about how many cases we might see.

See the following articles:

* Covid-19 is Seasonal: predicted cases and deaths
* Covid-19: Summer Respite, Winter Resurgence
* Vitamin D versus Covid-19: part one
* Vitamin D versus Covid-19: part two
* Vitamin D versus Covid-19: part three expert opinion
* Vitamin D
* Vitamin D from Sunshine causes Covid-19 Deaths to Decline Sharply