Note that this article was formerly titled: “Up To 25 Million U.S. Covid-19 Cases in January Alone”. The title has been updated with the prediction.
The number of cases of Covid-19 has increased month by month as Winter has approached:
Oct 2 million cases
Nov 4.5 million cases
Dec 6.6 million cases
I expected December to have between 7 and 9 million cases based on the seasonality of coronaviruses explained in this previous post. My prediction was very likely NOT wrong. It’s just that hospitals are full; they are beyond capacity, putting Covid patients in gift shops and in other make-shift Covid wards. The result is that hospitals are turning patients away, whom they would have admitted a month or two earlier. So that means that the reported number of cases is even more disproportionate to the actual number of cases than in previous months. There probably were 7 to 9 million cases in December. For January, I expect the number of cases to again double, though I don’t know if the reporting of cases has, in a sense, reached its limit at about 6.6 million.
DATA from first 7 days of January, 2021:
1,709,593 cases and 20,020 deaths, 7 day totals
244,228 cases and 2,860 deaths, per day average
7,571,055 cases and 88,660 deaths predicted based on per day average x 31 days.
Vitamin D can STILL Stop the Winter Wave of Covid-19 Cases. But something must be done NOW! If not, then the hospital system in the U.S. may collapse.
Low levels of vitamin D cause an increase in risk of infection of Covid-19, increase in risk of a severe case of Covid-19, increase in risk that you will need hospitalization, ICU care, or mechanical ventilation, and increase in risk of death from Covid-19. All of these risks are increased by low blood levels of vitamin D, and are REDUCED by normal levels of vitamin D in the blood.
The lowest level of Covid-19 cases occurred in July, August, and September of 2020. These are the three months when vitamin D levels in the general population are at their highest. Sunshine on skin in summer gradually increases vitamin D levels in the body, and then it takes about a month, once people are no longer going outside with more skin exposed to sun, for vitamin D levels to decline. That is why July, August, and September had the lowest number of cases (other than in the months when Covid-19 was just starting to spread).
July: 1,978,036 cases
August: 1,505,907 cases
September: 1,235,486 cases
Notice that the number of cases decreases through September. Vitamin D levels increase each month in the summer as people get more and more vitamin D from more time in the sun. There are persons who do not get vitamin D from sunshine on skin even in summer, but these numbers are the result of population averages. September benefits from the accumulation of vitamin D all summer long. Then as the vitamin D is gradually used up and is not replaced by more time in the sun (or by supplements), the vitamin D levels fall, and the number of cases increases.
October: 1,955,308 cases
November: 4,521,787 cases
Here is the increase in cases by week (each 7 day total of Covid-19 cases), starting on Tuesday, September 1st, through Monday, December 7th. A graph for the weekly deaths would look nearly the same as for cases: more cases means more deaths. However, the death rate has been slowly decreasing as doctors get better at treating Covid-19.
Look at the slope of that curve, increasing upward. It is going to continue increasing for at least two more months at about the same rate, based on studies of human coronaviruses that cause colds. “But,” you say, “Covid-19 is not a cold!!” Yes, but the pattern of Covid-19 cases has closely fit the pattern of the coronaviruses that cause colds, as both types of viruses are Seasonal due to the effects of rising and falling vitamin D blood levels on the virus.
The increase from Oct to Nov. was 2.25 times, from nearly 2 million cases to just over 4.5 million cases. Using just that figure, there would be 10 million cases in December and 22 million cases in January. But with an analysis based on the weekly case increase and data from studies on the seasonality of coronaviruses, I expect the number of cases in December to be between 7 and 10 million cases total for that month. And then the number of cases in January is more difficult to project, but it could be anywhere from 18 to 25 million cases in that month alone. That is based on the current weekly average increase of cases, which has been in the range of 15 to 25% more cases PER WEEK. It is also based on the study of human coronaviruses that cause colds.
Note Well: these predictions for the number of cases per month assume No Shutdown. If there is a massive shutdown, then the number of cases will drop dramatically. A better approach is described later in this article.
Then February could have more or less cases than January, but not much more or less. Then March could possibly be a high, above Jan or Feb, or it could show a substantial drop. But March will still be much higher than Nov or Dec. Again, these estimates are based on studies of human coronaviruses AND the data we have so far from Covid-19.
If I’m wrong, even if I’m way off, there will still be more cases in December than November, and even more cases in January than in December. And we are already at the breaking point!!! The hospital system in this nation is about to collapse. And if that happens, the DEATH RATE could jump up very sharply. As it is now, the death rate is slowly falling, even as the number of cases and number of deaths rises. The death rate is a percentage, so it can fall while the number of deaths rises. We are seeing a dramatic increase in cases, which then hides the modest decrease in percent deaths because the number of deaths rises so much due to the greater number of cases.
Now … What is causing this Winter Wave of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. ???? It’s the low levels of vitamin D in the population in winter. What is the solution??? Raise vitamin D levels as fast as possible in the whole population.
But because people do not get much vitamin D from the sun in winter, vitamin D blood levels fall. In summer, about 21% of the U.S. population has vitamin D deficiency; in winter, about 48% have vitamin D deficiency, and about another 25% have vitamin D insufficiency . That means that nearly 3/4ths of the U.S. population does not have enough vitamin D in their blood in winter. And there are at least 40 studies showing that low vitamin D increases Covid-19 risk, and normal vitamin D levels reduce Covid-19 risk.
Low Vitamin D is the cause of this great increase in Covid-19 cases so far, in October and November and early December!!! According to studies of the human coronaviruses that cause colds, the number of cases of Covid-19 — which follows the same seasonal pattern as the other coronaviruses — will continue to increase in December and again in January. The high point will be either January, or February, or March. The number of cases is a curve with the top of the curve in those three months, so there will be almost as many cases in each of those three months. Then the decline in cases in spring does not hit a relative low until JUNE !!! We can’t wait that long for vitamin D levels to increase naturally by exposure to the sun. Vitamin D supplementation is the solution.
How Much Vitamin D?
Your vitamin D level needs to be 30 to 100 ng/ml (which is 75 to 250 nmol/liter). Optimum level is 40 to 60 ng/ml (which is 100 to 150 nmol/liter). There is a 75% chance if you live in the U.S. that your vitamin D levels are below 30 ng/ml. It takes too long to schedule an appointment, have a blood test for vitamin D, and get the results. And we can’t do that for 330 million Americans and all the other persons in the world who are in the same situation of a Winter Wave of Covid-19. So here is the solution. It is safe for all adults.
* Take 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 each day for 6 days. That is a total of 600,000 IU for the week.
* Then, starting the next week, take 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a week (that’s a weekly dose, not a daily dose).
If you are unsure about taking such a large dose, here is an alternate plan, which takes a little longer to raise your vitamin D levels, if you have a deficiency.
* Take 20,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day for 30 days.
* Then take 10,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day thereafter.
Another option is for hospitals or doctors to give an injection of vitamin D at the same dose of 600,000 IU of vitamin D3 (“IM” which means an injection in the muscles), one time, and then take the weekly or daily dose above starting a week later.
Vitamin D is sufficient by itself to stop this massive Winter Wave of Covid-19. Why? because the increase in cases is caused by the lower vitamin D levels in winter. It’s as simple as that. And if we do not take vitamin D nationwide and worldwide, the winter wave will break the hospital and healthcare system, and we will have to have a massive Shutdown that will wreck the economy.
How Long Will It Take?
Once you take a dose of vitamin D3, it takes a few days for your vitamin D blood levels to start to rise. So benefits of vitamin D begin within days, but it will take a month for anyone with a vitamin D deficiency to reach normal levels with the above plans. And since it will take a while to distribute the vitamin D, any delay in taking the vitamin D will delay the benefits.
We need to start this program as soon as possible. I’ve been writing about this vitamin D plan for months. I’ve been warning about the Winter Wave for months.
If governments and health authorities will not act, then individuals should act. Start taking vitamin D as soon as possible. If you can only find the type with 1,000 IU or 2,000 IU per pill, then use the Plan B. Some companies make vitamin D pills with 50,000 IU per capsule. That is most convenient. If you can find that type, then use Plan A.
When the vaccination program begins, it should include an oral dose of vitamin D of 600,000 IU of vitamin D3. This will greatly increase the effectiveness of the vaccination.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
“an author, not a doctor”
1. 1. Kroll, Martin H., et al. “Temporal relationship between vitamin D status and parathyroid hormone in the United States.” PloS one 10.3 (2015): e0118108.