Winter of 2020 to 2021 will bring a Second Wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths. As explained previously, it will be severe:
* Covid-19 is Seasonal: Predicted Cases and Deaths (Explains the basis for the prediction of the extent of the Second Wave.)
* Covid-19 Predicted U.S. Deaths: Sept. 2020 thru June 2021 (These are the low end of the range predictions. It could be many times worse.)

But winter comes earlier to some other nations that to the United States. The prediction is that Covid-19 deaths will double from Sept to Oct. And cases will also rise substantially, though not double. (If cases double from Sept to Oct, we are royally screwed.)

Canaries used to be used in coal mines, because of their higher metabolism and breathing rate, they would drop dead from poisonous gas in coal mines, as an early warning to the miners. In this analogy, the U.S. population are the miners, and the nations where winter comes earlier than in the U.S. are the Canaries.

Can we use U.S. States in the same way? No. There are other factors that affect the number of cases, especially when the virus is not yet well dispersed in a population.

So how does this “Canary in the Coal Mine early warning of the Second Wave” work? First, new cases precede new deaths by one to two weeks. When there’s an increase in cases, it takes some number of days for those cases to progress to either death or getting better. So we would see an increase in cases before we see an increase in deaths. Then the earlier winter comes to a nation, the more it is an early warning to other nations, where winter sets in weeks later. But this is predicated on the idea that, in winter, people get less sunshine on skin, and so they make less vitamin D. It takes about a month for vitamin D levels in the body to decrease when there is no longer any production from sunshine or supplements.

Right now, in these Canary nations, we are seeing an increase in cases, but not an increase in deaths yet. By the end of Sept, the increase in deaths should follow — unless we have become so good at treating Covid-19 that the death rate is much lower. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

So this article looks at new cases in Canary nations, and at the end of Sept, I’ll look at new deaths and see what the situation may be.

Notice in the charts below — Canada, Finland, Iceland, Norway, United Kingdom — all have had a rise in cases over the past couple of weeks. The daily deaths charts show no corresponding rise. But this increase, across five nations each of which has an earlier start to winter than most of the United States, could be an early indicator of a winter Second Wave in all those nations and here in the U.S.

And the only way to stop that Wave, which is caused by falling vitamin D levels in winter, is to increase vitamin D levels. If you wait until you have Covid-19 to take vitamin D supplements, it may be less helpful. MATH+ protocol still recommends vitamin D for Covid-19 patients, at home or in hospital. But you are far better off raising your vitamin D levels in advance of getting sick.

At 10,000 IU/day it takes 35 days to raise vitamin D levels from 20 ng/ml to 40 ng/ml. If you have vitamin D deficiency, it will take at least two or three months to raise your levels. Some persons have recommended as much as 50,000 IU/day in order to raise vitamin D levels more quickly, especially in cases of vitamin D deficiency. And people who are overweight or obese need more vitamin D. Then persons with darker skin color are more likely to have a deficiency, as it takes more time in the sun to make vitamin D with a darker skin color (regardless of race or ethnicity).

Here are the charts showing an approaching Second Wave:

For October, I’m predicting about twice as many U.S. Covid-19 deaths as in September. And for November, another doubling. Those numbers will tell us how bad the subsequent four months will be.

Ronald L. Conte Jr.