See update #2 below. December will have about twice as many Covid deaths as November, and only 1.5 times as many cases. That means the death rate is rising faster than the case rate.
This is important. I’ve been tracking the death rate from Covid-19 based on the reported cases and reported deaths, in a 7-day total of each. The 7 day total of daily deaths is divided by the 7-day total of reported cases, and that gives a percentage. Actual number of cases is higher, but these are the numbers that we have available. And even if the number of cases is twice as high or three times as high, or whatever, the numbers are still rising or falling.
The 7-day numbers for cases and deaths are compared in four different ways.
1. Same week to same week - the total deaths for that weeks is divided into the total cases. Example: First week of September, the 1st to the 7th, when this set of weeks begins. 5,798 deaths / 273,779 cases = 2.12% death rate.
2. One Week Apart - total deaths for a week divided by total reported cases one week earlier. This is done because it takes a while for a new case to result in a death, which might be a week or more.
3. Two weeks apart - Same as #2 except two weeks apart. It takes an average of 2 weeks for someone who begins to have symptoms (and therefore can now be reported as a case) to eventually die, on average, if they are going to die.
4. An average of all three figures above.
Since September 1st, these numbers have been steadily falling, from 2.12% down to lows of:
1) 0.73% — week ending Nov 16
2) 0.86% — Nov 30
3) 0.96% — Nov 30
4) 0.91% — Nov 30
And now the figures for week ending Dec 14 are higher:
1) 1.12%
2) 1.16%
3) 1.54%
4) 1.27%
This represents a 40 to 60% increase. For Example:
1.54/0.96 = 1.604 which is a 60.4% increase from the week ending Nov. 30th (for deaths).
You may notice the week begins on a Tuesday. This is because Sept 1 was a Tuesday, and that’s when these figures began.
The Death Rate is rising for the first time since April, 2020, when the monthly death rate was 6.6%.
Now the case rate has been rising steadily, on a weekly basis (except for the week of Thanksgiving), since September 1st. But at the same time, the death rate weekly was FALLING. This means that the daily deaths might be higher, due to the higher number of cases, while at the same time the percentage of deaths is lower.
But now the percentage of deaths is rising.
This is very bad. The numbers don’t look so bad, but what it probably means is that the hospitals are so overwhelmed that PERSONS ARE DYING who would NOT have DIED except for the overwhelming number of cases.
And according to may analysis published in AUGUST, January, February, and March will see a very high number of cases, much higher than Nov or Dec.
Approx. Total cases:
October: 2 million
November: 4.5 million
December: now estimated at 6.8 to 7 million
January: If January increases by the same 1.5 times (as from Nov to Dec), then January will have 10.2 to 10.8 million cases. But if January increases to the same extent as from Oct to Nov, then January will have more than 15 million cases.
February may be higher than January. March may be higher still.
I predicted this increase in my August article here.
There is a way to stop this increase of cases and deaths: a massive immediate vitamin D program. We can no longer use the safer slower ramping up of vitamin D blood levels.
For those not already taking vitamin D, for the elderly and those at greatest risk:
A Vitamin D bolus dose of 500,000 IU either on one day, or spread out over 5 days (i.e. 100,000 IU daily for 5 days). Repeat each month until late spring.
Treatment with ivermectin for those who have Covid-19, AND for those at highest risk of contracting Covid-19 is highly recommended.
UPDATE
Today is the end of another 7-day period, and reported cases across the last three weeks is essentially flat, while deaths are up. My interpretation is that cases are up, but because the hospitals are full, many new cases do not get reported. If so, then the true number of cases could be anywhere from 1.8 to 2.5 million per WEEK, instead of the reported 1.5 million per week.
Full hospitals means the case rate will appear flat. But the increase in deaths will show that the true case rate is higher, and also that the hospitals are being overwhelmed. More persons are now dying of Covid in their homes, for this reason.
At this point, it looks like a massive Shutdown is needed to keep the hospital system from collapsing.
UPDATE 2
November cases 4,523,728 — deaths 38,293
projected for December based on first 21 days: 6,846,963 cases — deaths 78,234
That’s 1.5 times as many cases, but more than twice as many deaths, for December as compared to November. And January, as compared to December, will be even worse. We could see over 100,000 deaths in January, perhaps close to 200,000 deaths, and more than 10 million cases, just in January.
Ronald L Conte Jr
covid.us.org
“an author, not a doctor”
