My prediction for the number of U.S. deaths from Covid-19 in August was: 30,798 deaths. The actual number turned out to be 30,961 deaths. I was off by less than one percent.
For number of monthly cases, the actual number is 1,505,907 for August. I was off just under 17%, and my prediction was too high at 1,759,899 cases for August. Does that mean my other predictions for monthly cases of Covid in the U.S. are too high? No. Covid-19 is seasonal. That means the cases and severity cycle from low in the good months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sept) to high in the bad months (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar). A lower number in the good months could mean a higher number in the bad months due to the cyclic nature of the disease.
Prediction for September, adjusted based on August numbers, is 1,333,803 cases and 27,423 deaths. The figures are arrived at by using the ratios from month to month from a study of human coronaviruses that cause colds, and their seasonality (Edridge 2020), to obtain the case rate, and then the death rate is based on recent months, the actual rate for Covid-19.
Please note that the predicted cases and deaths is not expected to be exact to the single digits. That is just how the numbers turned out from the calculation. I would put September cases at between 1.3 and 1.4 million cases per month. Many factors affect this number, including gov’t policy and school policies, so it could be higher with poor decisions. The case fatality rate for August in the U.S. was 2.056%. That’s total deaths for August divided by total reported cases. September will hopefully not be any higher as a percentage, so that gives us the lower death rate: same death percentage against a lower number of cases. But in the winter months, the lower levels of vitamin D will cause a higher case fatality rate against a higher case rate. And that will cause the death rate to reach hundreds of thousands of deaths per month — unless the nation decides upon a severe shut down. But many persons won’t obey such a shutdown. And the vaccines might not be effective enough.
Here are the estimates for the rest of 2020 and the first half of 2021. This is the LOW estimate! Of the three studies on seasonality of coronaviruses, this prediction uses the one with the lowest difference between case rates in summer and in winter. The numbers could be much worse. Using either of the other two studies results in millions of deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. alone this winter, with deaths per month possibly exceeding one million in multiple winter months. So the following is the rosie scenario:
The total U.S. deaths from Covid-19 for the 4 months of Sept, Oct, Nov, and Dec. based on my analysis of the seasonality of the disease: 376,808 deaths. Add to that number the 187,736 deaths from Feb 29th, the day of the first U.S. death to the end of August, and the total death toll would be 564,544 U.S. total death toll from Covid-19 in 2020. I could be off in this prediction by tens of thousands in either direction.
The only solution is a nationwide Vitamin D supplementation program: adults 10,000 IU of vitamin D per day for the entire winter, or 100,000 IU of vitamin D once a week. For the elderly or persons at higher risk of death from Covid-19, double the dosage. Vitamin D studies.
Infants: 400 IU/day
Children, 1-3: 2,000 IU/day
Children, 4-8: 2,500 IU/day
Children, 9-13: 3,000 IU/day
Teens, 14-18: 4,000 IU/day
Adults, 19-59: 10,000 IU/day
Seniors, 60+: 20,000 IU/day
If the case rate increases in the winter months, as I am predicting due to the seasonality of coronaviruses, then the cases in each winter month, Dec – March, will be between 2 and 3.5 million cases, and the deaths in each of those months will be between 120,000 and 230,000. That’s U.S. deaths from Covid-19 alone in each winter month. Total winter deaths could be over 850,000 for those 4 months alone.
The Edridge study had the lowest numbers and the lowest range from low to high. Two other studies of the same type had much higher highs in the winter months. Those studies would apply in places where the winters are very cold, and they still have warm summers. So the case and death rates could be much higher in particular regions.
Note that my predictions for this winter are for a large Second Wave of cases and deaths, with an increase in both the number of cases and an increase in the percentage of deaths, the deaths will rise much more than the cases will rise. The only way to avoid this Second Wave is a massive vitamin D supplementation program.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Covid.us.org
Note: The author of this article is not a doctor, nurse, or healthcare provider, and this article does not offer medical advice.
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