The first rate is the weekly new deaths from the week ending at the stated date divided by the weekly new cases from two weeks earlier. The one week lag accounts for the time from diagnosis to death:
12.21% — April 11, 2020
9.82% — April 18, 2020
6.88% — April 25, 2020
6.40% — May 2, 2020
5.68% — May 9, 2020
5.03% — May 16, 2020
4.59% — May 23, 2020
4.28% — May 30, 2020
4.11% — June 6, 2020
3.62% — June 13, 2020
2.59% — June 20, 2020
4.02% — June 27, 2020
2.21% — July 4, 2020
1.91% — July 11, 2020
1.61% — July 18, 2020
The next set of numbers is the weekly new deaths from the week ending at the stated date divided by the weekly new cases from one week earlier. The one week lag accounts for the time from diagnosis to death. It’s not clear which number would be a better fit. However, either way the death rate is falling.
6.46% — April 11, 2020
8.32% — April 18, 2020
7.40% — April 25, 2020
5.94% — May 2, 2020
6.29% — May 9, 2020
5.40% — May 16, 2020
5.34% — May 23, 2020
4.32% — May 30, 2020
4.36% — June 6, 2020
3.16% — June 13, 2020
2.90% — June 20, 2020
3.28% — June 27, 2020
1.57% — July 4, 2020
1.50% — July 11, 2020
1.30% — July 18, 2020
A third way to look at the numbers is the running total deaths divided by the running total of cases. This would be cases and deaths totaled from day one to the date stated. The highest rate was reached at 5.97% on Wednesday, May 20, 2020, and from then on, the death rate fell steadily:
2.37% — Wednesday, April 1, 2020
2.48% — Thursday, April 2, 2020
2.67% — Friday, April 3, 2020
2.71% — Saturday, April 4, 2020
2.86% — Sunday, April 5, 2020
2.96% — Monday, April 6, 2020
3.21% — Tuesday, April 7, 2020
3.40% — Wednesday, April 8, 2020
3.56% — Thursday, April 9, 2020
3.73% — Friday, April 10, 2020
3.86% — Saturday, April 11, 2020
3.94% — Sunday, April 12, 2020
4.03% — Monday, April 13, 2020
4.24% — Tuesday, April 14, 2020
4.43% — Wednesday, April 15, 2020
5.11% — Thursday, April 16, 2020
5.23% — Friday, April 17, 2020
5.28% — Saturday, April 18, 2020
5.31% — Sunday, April 19, 2020
5.36% — Monday, April 20, 2020
5.54% — Tuesday, April 21, 2020
5.62% — Wednesday, April 22, 2020
5.67% — Thursday, April 23, 2020
5.64% — Friday, April 24, 2020
5.65% — Saturday, April 25, 2020
5.61% — Sunday, April 26, 2020
5.62% — Monday, April 27, 2020
5.72% — Tuesday, April 28, 2020
5.79% — Wednesday, April 29, 2020
5.83% — Thursday, April 30, 2020
5.81% — Friday, May 1, 2020
5.81% — Saturday, May 2, 2020
5.77% — Sunday, May 3, 2020
5.77% — Monday, May 4, 2020
5.84% — Tuesday, May 5, 2020
5.92% — Wednesday, May 6, 2020
5.95% — Thursday, May 7, 2020
5.95% — Friday, May 8, 2020
5.94% — Saturday, May 9, 2020
5.91% — Sunday, May 10, 2020
5.90% — Monday, May 11, 2020
5.92% — Tuesday, May 12, 2020
5.96% — Wednesday, May 13, 2020
5.96% — Thursday, May 14, 2020
5.96% — Friday, May 15, 2020
5.98% — Saturday, May 16, 2020
5.96% — Sunday, May 17, 2020
5.93% — Monday, May 18, 2020
5.96% — Tuesday, May 19, 2020
5.97% — Wednesday, May 20, 2020
5.94% — Thursday, May 21, 2020
5.94% — Friday, May 22, 2020
5.92% — Saturday, May 23, 2020
5.89% — Sunday, May 24, 2020
5.85% — Monday, May 25, 2020
5.83% — Tuesday, May 26, 2020
5.85% — Wednesday, May 27, 2020
5.84% — Thursday, May 28, 2020
5.83% — Friday, May 29, 2020
5.81% — Saturday, May 30, 2020
5.78% — Sunday, May 31, 2020
5.75% — Monday, June 1, 2020
5.74% — Tuesday, June 2, 2020
5.74% — Wednesday, June 3, 2020
5.73% — Thursday, June 4, 2020
5.67% — Friday, June 5, 2020
5.64% — Saturday, June 6, 2020
5.60% — Sunday, June 7, 2020
5.58% — Monday, June 8, 2020
5.58% — Tuesday, June 9, 2020
5.57% — Wednesday, June 10, 2020
5.55% — Thursday, June 11, 2020
5.52% — Friday, June 12, 2020
5.49% — Saturday, June 13, 2020
5.45% — Sunday, June 14, 2020
5.42% — Monday, June 15, 2020
5.39% — Tuesday, June 16, 2020
5.36% — Wednesday, June 17, 2020
5.33% — Thursday, June 18, 2020
5.29% — Friday, June 19, 2020
5.23% — Saturday, June 20, 2020
5.19% — Sunday, June 21, 2020
5.13% — Monday, June 22, 2020
5.09% — Tuesday, June 23, 2020
5.12% — Wednesday, June 24, 2020
5.06% — Thursday, June 25, 2020
5.00% — Friday, June 26, 2020
4.94% — Saturday, June 27, 2020
4.87% — Sunday, June 28, 2020
4.80% — Monday, June 29, 2020
4.77% — Tuesday, June 30, 2020
4.71% — Wednesday, July 1, 2020
4.64% — Thursday, July 2, 2020
4.57% — Friday, July 3, 2020
4.51% — Saturday, July 4, 2020
4.43% — Sunday, July 5, 2020
4.37% — Monday, July 6, 2020
4.33% — Tuesday, July 7, 2020
4.27% — Wednesday, July 8, 2020
4.22% — Thursday, July 9, 2020
4.15% — Friday, July 10, 2020
4.09% — Saturday, July 11, 2020
4.04% — Sunday, July 12, 2020
3.97% — Monday, July 13, 2020
3.92% — Tuesday, July 14, 2020
3.87% — Wednesday, July 15, 2020
3.82% — Thursday, July 16, 2020
3.77% — Friday, July 17, 2020
3.73% — Saturday, July 18, 2020
3.68% — Sunday, July 19, 2020
3.63% — Monday, July 20, 2020
3.60% — Tuesday, July 21, 2020
3.56% — Wednesday, July 22, 2020
These values are from a spreadsheet with numbers entered from the data at Worldometers.info on Covid-19.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Covid.us.org
Note: the author of this article is not a doctor, nurse, or healthcare provider.
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