In the U.S. the number of Covid-19 cases for the last 7 days, Nov. 3 to 9, was 854,483 cases with 7,452 deaths for a daily average of 122,069 cases and 1,065 deaths. If this rate stays flat, November will see 3,662,070 cases and 31,937 deaths. But if the rise in cases continues, as it has been rising over more than the last month and longer, then November will more likely see 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. alone.

According to my past analysis, based on studies of seasonal human coronaviruses that cause colds, December will see an even greater number of cases, and January and February will also have a large increase over December. The number of cases could be 6 or 7 million per month, or more.

Here’s the original article from August 3rd. Different studies found different values for the winter increase. But the way it looks now, the increase will be higher than the low end of that range.